Poll: 8 in 10 Voters Want Change, Putting Republicans in Historically Risky Midterm Territory
President Trump's 36% approval among voters sits in a range that has historically cost the party in power dozens of House seats.
By Jordyn Davis // EEW Magazine Online
Voters head to the polls Nov. 3 in midterm elections that will decide control of the House and Senate. An AP-NORC poll finds 8 in 10 registered voters want substantial change in how the country is run. (Credit: EEW Magazine)
Eight in 10 registered voters want substantial change or "complete and total upheaval" in how the country is run, according to a poll released Thursday by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. That sentiment arrives less than three weeks before the Nov. 3 midterms, with Republicans holding the White House and both chambers of Congress.
Voters' biggest worries are economic. More than 8 in 10, Democrats and Republicans alike, rank the economy and the cost of living among the most important issues in their vote, well ahead of immigration and crime.
The economy and the cost of living top voters' concerns heading into the midterms, with more than 8 in 10 registered voters ranking each among the most important issues in their vote. (Credit: EEW Magazine)
Those are also the issues where President Donald Trump gets his weakest marks. Nearly 8 in 10 voters disapprove of how he is handling the cost of living. Among all adults, his approval on the economy has slipped to 25%, the lowest AP-NORC has recorded for him.
His overall approval among registered voters stands at 36%, and in a midterm year that number carries weight. Since World War II, presidents below 50% approval have watched their party lose an average of 37 House seats, according to Gallup. Above that line, the average loss is 14.
Republicans have little room to give. They hold the House 218-214, and Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to take control, according to Ballotpedia.
The restlessness reaches into the Republican base, where 45% of voters say the country needs substantial change. About half of Democrats and 4 in 10 independents want a complete overhaul.
Asked which party should run the House, voters lean Democratic, 47% to 38%, with 15% undecided. That lean comes with little warmth. Forty percent of voters view the Democratic Party favorably, a few points better than the 36% who see Republicans that way, and two-thirds say they feel pessimistic about the state of politics.
The wider landscape points the same direction in the House. Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by about 9 points, Northeastern University reported this week. Cook Political Report's latest ratings put roughly twice as many Republican-held seats as Democratic-held ones in competitive play, according to a Newsweek analysis.
There are reasons for caution. Redistricting in 10 states this cycle is projected to give Republicans a net gain of about four House seats, by Cook's estimate. The poll also carries a recent reminder. In October 2022, AP-NORC found adults favoring Democratic control of the House by 7 points, and Republicans won the House a month later. This year, the gap among adults is 9.
The Senate is harder terrain for Democrats, who need a net gain of four seats. Fox News' latest rankings list six toss-ups, in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas, The Hill reported. Because Vice President JD Vance breaks ties, Democrats would need at least four of the six to reach a 51-seat majority.
Early voting is already underway in parts of the country, and more than 1 in 5 adults have yet to decide which party should control the House. Their choices over the next three weeks will settle what the polls can only suggest.
The AP-NORC poll of 1,119 adults, including 925 registered voters, was conducted Oct. 8-12 using NORC's probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for all adults and 4.2 points for registered voters.